Hierarchical analysis of behavior in competition: Prediction in chess

In this paper we use the analytic hierarchy process to combine technical and behavioral characteristics of chess players and predict the outcome of a championship match. The method also applies to decision making in living systems at the level of the group. Our approach to prediction deals with the inputs (know-how of the players) of a system (the chess board and its psychological surrounding environment), the transformation of the input within the system through actual play, and with its outputs (outcome of the match). Thus our task is to assess the quality of the input by deriving a relative index of power of the players by identifying (with the assistance of grandmasters through a questionnaire) the relevant factors whose totality may determine the outcome. We then use this index to assess the kind of output (win, draw, or loss) that it would produce over a set of several encounters in a match. The outcome of our analysis is an estimate of the total number of games that two given players would play, together with the numbers of games won by each player. We also analyze the sensitivity of the results to changes in the expectations of the competitors.