Spatial clustering of property abandonment in shrinking cities: a case study of targeted demolition in Buffalo, NY’s African American neighborhoods

Many low-income and minority-concentrated neighborhoods have been struggling for decades with the acute problem of endemic abandonment in shrinking cities. Using high-resolution spatial–temporal data, this study attempts to extend our understanding of the influence of abandonment on future abandonment and the impact of interventions such as demolition by identifying spatial patterns of housing abandonment and demolition in Buffalo, New York when the city invested heavily in an aggressive 5-in-5 demolition plan targeting predominantly African American neighborhoods with high rates of abandonment. Our results confirmed that the clustering of abandoned properties has been consistently confined to the city's majority African American east side neighborhood. We found a higher level of duress housing sales on the east side after the 5-in-5 plan's implementation. In essence, 5-in-5 was a demolition and slum clearance policy akin to mid-twentieth-century urban renewal programs focusing on removing blighted properties without a concomitant revitalization component.