Key result
A new early warning cardiac surgical scoring system demonstrated excellent discrimination for ICU mortality, with areas under the ROC curves between 0.91 and 0.96.
Why the study?
Does a new early warning scoring system accurately predict clinical deterioration and mortality in adult patients admitted to the ICU after cardiac surgery?
Cohort (n=5,207)
Does a new early warning scoring system accurately predict clinical deterioration and mortality in adult patients admitted to the ICU after cardiac surgery?
A newly developed 11-variable scoring system for hand-held devices demonstrates excellent discrimination and calibration for predicting clinical deterioration and mortality in postoperative cardiac surgical ICU patients.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
May support early risk stratification in post-cardiac surgery ICU; hypothesis-generating pending prospective validation.
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop a new scoring system for the prompt recognition of clinical deterioration and early treatment in postoperative cardiac surgical patients. METHODS: All consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 1st January 2007 and 31st December 2010 were included. The new score was calculated daily until intensive care unit (ICU) discharge. The score consists of 11 variables representing six different organ systems. Performance was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration tests. RESULTS: A total of 5207 patients with a mean age of 67.2 ± 10.9 years were admitted to the ICU after cardiac surgery. The operations performed covered the whole spectrum of cardiac surgery. ICU mortality was 5.9%. The mean length of ICU stay was 4.6 ± 7.0 days. The new score had an excellent discrimination with areas under the ROC curves between 0.91 and 0.96. Calibration was also excellent reflected by observed/expected mortality ratios ranging between 1.0 and 1.26. CONCLUSIONS: The new score is a simple and reliable scoring system to assess organ dysfunction in cardiac intensive care patients. It is designed especially for personal digital assistants to simplify and accelerate the process of risk stratification in cardiac surgical ICUs.
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Badreldin et al. (2013) conducted a cohort in Postoperative cardiac surgical patients (n=5,207). New early warning cardiac surgical scoring system was evaluated on Discrimination (area under the ROC curve) and calibration for ICU mortality (AUC 0.91-0.96). A new early warning cardiac surgical scoring system demonstrated excellent discrimination for ICU mortality, with areas under the ROC curves between 0.91 and 0.96.
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