The Differential True Rates of Growth of the White Population in the United States and Their Probable Effects on the General Growth of the Population

The white population of the United States had practically reached a stationary rate of growth in 1930, if only fertility is considered. Its potential rate of growth declined in the ensuing years until at present its rate fluctuates around 90, indicating a potencial rate of decline of about 10 per cent in a generation. Whereas in 1930 the white population as a whole maintained a reproduction rate sufficient to keep it stationary, some entire states in the Union and some classes within almost all the states showed rates below their ability to maintain their numbers. An analysis of the rates by states, by states and classes-i.e., rural-farm, rural-nonfarm, and urban populations-and by states and size of community, is presented in this study. It seems that the future growth and distribution of the population will depend on the rate at which the potentially rapidly declining city population will be replaced by the rapidly growing rural populations of the southern states. Should the newcomers adopt the city mode of life, the potential rate of decline of the population as a whole will be accelerated. In general, the analysis seems to point toward a narrowing in the range of the differentials between the rural and the urban classes, and between North and South. A narrower range will, of course, cause a greater decline. Such quantitative changes will bring about qualitative changes, i.e., older and more conservative populations. Moreover, the South, acting as the source of the population replacement, is likely to exercise in the future a greater influence on our political and social life.