Coupling Coordination Analysis of the Water–Land–Energy–Food–Carbon Nexus: A Case Study of Beijing

The rapid process of urbanization introduces considerable uncertainty to the sustainable development of cities, necessitating a paradigm shift in traditional resource management strategies to integrate them into a comprehensive socioeconomic-environmental system. This study constructs a water–land–energy–food–carbon (WLEFC) nexus evaluation system and develops a system dynamics (SD) model for the WLEFC nexus. The SD model was calibrated and validated using historical data from 2004 to 2022, allowing for reliable simulation of the WLEFC system dynamics for the Years 2023–2030. The comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree were then calculated to assess the interactions and dependencies within the system. The results reveal that from 2004 to 2022, the comprehensive evaluation indexes of water, land, energy, food, and carbon systems in Beijing exhibited distinct developmental trends. These trends reflect progress and challenges in water resource management, land-use efficiency, energy structure optimization, food production, and carbon emission control. The data on coupling and coordination degrees unveil strong dependencies among systems and the effectiveness of coordinated development. Future outlooks (2023–2030) indicate that, regardless of the current situation or comprehensive policy scenarios, Beijing is making strides toward sustainable development. Despite facing challenges, the effective implementation of policies and measures promises the harmonious development of resources, the environment, and socioeconomic factors. This research explores strategies for integrated urban resource management, aiming for the coordinated development of the economy, society, and environment, offering new insights for megacities worldwide in their pursuit of sustainability.