State preferences, viable alternatives, and American covert action, 1946-1989

This study introduces novel data on American covert action during the Cold War, as well as new data on the presence of viable alternative regimes throughout the Cold War. This data is then used to test an argument about when and where the U.S. was most likely to employ three types of covert action programs, differentiated by motive: regime change, regime maintenance, and subversion. The key variables driving covert action are alignment towards the U.S.-led international order and the presence of a viable alternative regime challenging the authority of the government in the target state.