Using seafaring simulations and shortest-hop trajectories to model the prehistoric colonization of Remote Oceania

Significance The colonization of Remote Oceania between ∼3400 and 800 B.P.—from multiple origin points and across hundreds or thousands of kilometers of open ocean—represents some of the most impressive population dispersals on Earth. For decades, scholars have sought to explain when and how these occurred. Here we show that seafaring simulation techniques coupled with sophisticated analyses of climatic data, including the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation events and island distribution on ancient voyaging, are critical comparative tools for understanding the variables—culturally, technologically, and environmentally—that structured movement across the world’s largest ocean. These data also pinpoint likely departure points for ancient Pacific Islanders that in some cases support or negate current archaeological and other lines of evidence.