Remote control of North China autumn rainfall by Tibetan Plateau soil conditions

Schematic diagram illustrating how the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with TP subsurface soil anomalies modulates precipitation over NC. Enhanced TP subsurface soil anomalies intensify turbulent heating and elicit a barotropic thermal equilibrium response. The anomalous turbulent heating from the TP primarily excites a significant Rossby wave train that propagates from the TP toward NC, resulting in a “lower-tropospheric low, upper-tropospheric high” circulation configuration over NC. Moist flows from the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific, combined with favorable vertical motion, also provide a conducive environment for precipitation in NC. • TP soil temperature and moisture anomalies modulate NC autumn rainfall. • TP modulate NC rainfall via Rossby waves, enhancing ascent and moisture supply. • Warmer TP soils increase intensity, not frequency, enhancing NC heavy rainfall. • TP soil conditions offer predictive potential for NC rainfall prediction. Autumn rainfall in North China impacts agriculture and water resources, yet its drivers remain poorly understood. Here, we reveal that Tibetan Plateau subsurface soil temperature and moisture anomalies significantly modulate North China’s autumn total and extreme rainfall, with soil temperature exerting a stronger influence. Tibetan Plateau subsurface soil conditions explain over a quarter of East Asian autumn precipitation variability. Warmer Tibetan Plateau subsurface soils enhance surface turbulent heating, triggering barotropic atmospheric anomalies that excite downstream Rossby wave propagation. The resulting Rossby wave trains generate upper-level high-pressure and low-level low-pressure anomalies that strengthen ascent and moisture convergence over North China. Moreover, warmer Tibetan Plateau soils intensify extreme rainfall events in North China by increasing rainfall intensity rather than frequency. Statistical and deep learning analyses demonstrate the persistent nature of Tibetan Plateau subsurface soil anomalies, offering predictive potential for seasonal and weather forecasts. Overall, these findings establish Tibetan Plateau subsurface soil conditions as a key regulator of North China autumn rainfall, providing critical insights for regional climate prediction and extreme weather management.