Despite advances in the hazardous weather predictive skills of forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) [ Simmons and Sutter, 2011], the underlying methodologies used to generate severe weather watches (i.e., announcements that the potential for severe weather exists) and warnings (i.e., announcements that severe weather conditions are occurring or imminent) have changed little since they were first issued in 1965. The resulting text‐based, deterministic (i.e., a single, most accurate value) messages lack the detail and flexibility to match the technology, science, diversity, lifestyles, and vulnerability of society today.
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Rothfusz et al. (2014) studied this question.