Spatiotemporal evolution and multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service value in the Qiantang River urban agglomeration under land use change

Understanding land‑use change impacts on ecosystem service values (ESV) is essential for balancing ecological and socioeconomic needs in urbanizing basins. This study analyzes the Qiantang River Basin using 2000–2020 land‑use data, transition matrices, and dynamic degree methods, with ESV quantified via revised equivalent factors. A patch‑generating land‑use simulation model projects five 2030 scenarios: natural development, cropland protection, ecological protection, urban development, and sustainable development. Results show cropland declined 9.2% and construction land grew 126.3% from 2000 to 2020, causing a marked ESV reduction, mainly from cultivated land and water body loss. Scenario analysis indicates ecological protection and sustainable development pathways can alleviate ESV degradation, whereas natural development and urban expansion exacerbate ecosystem decline. The findings suggest that strict urban growth control combined with enhanced cropland and ecological protection can achieve synergistic ecological and economic benefits, offering actionable guidance for regional spatial planning and sustainable basin management.