Planning for Success: A Scenariobased Approach to Contingency Planning Using Expert Judgment

This paper proposes an innovative alternative approach to contingency planning using the techniques of gaming, decision analysis and risk analysis. A hindcasting scenario exercise conducted with over 60 oil spill experts is described. The exercise identifies the critical success factors that must be achieved and the problems that must be resolved in order to accomplish a successful oil spill response. The experts' ratings of the relative criticality and difficulty in achieving the critical success factors and solving the critical problems are presented and discussed. The use of influence‐diagramming techniques to structure the results of the hindcasting exercise is described. Experts may use this model to assess the response readiness of their area of responsibility, to identify critical problems or to assess the status of an emergency response.