Quantitative Political Geography: GIS Baseline Model for the Political-Spatial Structure of the Shang-Zhou Period Shandong Region

Traditional scholarship on early Chinese political geography has largely privileged textual analysis, often lacking quantifiable baselines for assessing spatial structure. Addressing this gap, this study utilizes the Shang-Zhou period Shandong region as a focal case to propose a replicable GIS framework—incorporating Kernel Density Analysis (KDA) and Voronoi diagrams—grounded in a null-hypothesis approach. Rather than attempting to simulate theoretical territories, these methods are employed to establish a purely geometric baseline for political space. Central to this study’s findings is the quantification of deviations from this geometric ideal. These measurable discrepancies—manifesting as “Voronoi voids” in mountainous zones and “scale violations” by major powers—serve as empirical indicators for interpreting the tangible impacts of topography, power dynamics, and resource allocation, such as the coastal salt fields identified via KDA. Ultimately, this study demonstrates that this deviation analysis framework functions as a vital quantitative complement to traditional institutional history, effectively elucidating the spatial logic and dynamic evolution of ancient political systems.