Does current utility bias predictions of future utility for high stakes decisions? Here I provide field evidence consistent with such Projection Bias in one of life's most thought-about decisions: college enrolment. After arguing and documenting with survey evidence that cloudiness increases the appeal of academic activities, I analyse the enrolment decisions of 1, 284 prospective students who visited a university known for its academic strengths and recreational weaknesses. Consistent with the notion that "current" weather conditions influence decisions about "future" academic activities, I find that an increase in cloudcover of one standard deviation on the day of the visit is associated with an increase in the probability of enrolment of 9 percentage points. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.
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Uri Simonsohn (2009) studied this question.