Exploring analytical pathways for climate change as a threat multiplier

Abstract Climate change has been widely conceptualized as a threat multiplier of pre-existing disadvantage, yet quantitative research has lacked a structured framework for empirically testing how climate-related exposures amplify disadvantage–outcome relationships. We present a theoretical framework and diagram adapted from epidemiologic thinking that outline key analytical pathways for examining climate change as a threat multiplier. By translating this concept into epidemiologic terms, this framework enables systematic testing of threat multiplication, moving beyond approaches that focus solely on heterogeneity in the direct effects of climate exposures on an outcome. In doing so, it provides a more precise and operationalizable approach for advancing quantitative climate justice research, including more targeted and equity-oriented intervention and policy strategies.