The Abolition of the Swedish Alcohol Rationing System: effects on consumption distribution and cirrhosis mortality

Summary From the mid‐fifties, Sweden experienced a much sharper rise in male cirrhosis mortality than should be expected from the development in per capita consumption. The present paper attempts to explain this anomaly. No evidence was found for the hypothesis that the discrepancy is due to the increased frequency of autopsy or to changes in stress factors (unemployment and divorce rates). Next, the attention is turned to the abolition of the Swedish rationing system in 1955. Available data indicates that the reform had a redistributive impact: the larger the consumption during the rationing, the larger the relative increase after its abolition. Considering the convex relationship between consumption and the risk of dying from cirrhosis, an effect of the redistribution on aggregate mortality is expected. This effect was assessed by means of a micro to macro simulation resting on a multitude of empirical findings. According to the results, a substantial part of the exceptional mortality rise‐possibly all of it‐is attributable to the redistribution of consumption.