Future load curve shaping based on similarity using fuzzy logic approach

Load forecasting has always been essential to efficient power system planning and operation. In this paper, the authors propose the fuzzy logic approach for next-day load curve shaping based on similarity. The proposed approach has the advantage of dealing not only with the nonlinear part of the forecast load curve but also with load forecasting irrespective of day type. In addition to these advantages, the proposed method is useful in situations where accurate forecasting models are difficult to design. The fuzzy logic approach is used to modify the load curves on similar days to shape the next-day load curve. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to actual load data of the Okinawa Electric Power Company, Japan.