Beyond protected areas: spatial conservation priorities for an endemic and endangered orchid species in Mexico using species distribution models

Introduction Identifying geographic areas with suitable environmental conditions for endangered and endemic species is crucial to enhancing conservation efforts. Oncidium incurvum is a rare epiphytic orchid endemic to Mexico. Like its relatives, it faces human-related pressures that threaten its survival. This study aimed to identify geographic areas that are environmentally suitable for this species and to propose priority zones for its conservation. Methods Occurrence data were obtained from herbarium collections and field observations. The data were verified and cleaned to identify distribution patterns. MaxEnt was used to model the species distribution using 18 environmental variables. The resulting model was overlaid on a map of Mexico’s biogeographic provinces for clarity. The model was overlaid on layers of the human impact index, protected natural areas, and priority conservation sites to identify areas for conservation. Results The species is distributed across southern and southeastern Mexico, occurring in montane cloud forests, evergreen tropical forests, and coniferous and oak forests. Factors influencing its potential distribution include temperature seasonality, elevation, annual precipitation, precipitation during humid months, and annual evapotranspiration. The proposed priority conservation areas are the Sierra Madre del Sur, the Chiapas Highlands, and the Veracruz Province within the portion corresponding to the state of Chiapas. Discussion This study identified suitable areas that support the presence of O. incurvum beyond known hotspots and protected areas. The findings provide crucial information to guide conservation efforts for O. incurvum and highlight the importance of integrating areas of medium suitability environmental into the environmental as climatic refuges for rare and endemic species.