Assessing Forest Degradation and Restoration Pathways on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Implications for Sustainable Forest Management and Policy

The forest ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) are vital for ecological security yet face severe degradation. This study provides an integrated spatial assessment to guide sustainable management. We combined landscape pattern indices (including the Large Patch Index, LPI, and Aggregation Index, AI), the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, and the Geodetector model to evaluate forest degradation status, restoration potential, and underlying drivers across the QTP. Results show the potential forest area is 29.30 × 10⁴ km². A clear north-south divergence exists: the south holds significant restoration potential (∼18% increase), while the northeast suffers from extensive fragmentation and degradation (5.53 × 10⁴ km²). Landscape metrics confirm fragmentation (current LPI=18.11, AI=52.54) but project marked improvement with restoration (LPI=25.95, AI=61.92). Analysis identifies biomass as the primary factor for potential forest distribution, whereas human activities, especially road construction, are the main driver of degradation. We propose a differentiated management framework: intensifying afforestation in the resilient south and regulating anthropogenic pressure in the degraded north. This work translates ecological diagnosis into actionable strategies for balancing forest ecosystem recovery with sustainable development on the QTP.