Key result
Image-based and digitized CNN models match natively digital models for predicting mortality from ECGs.
Why the study?
Most AI-ECG models predicting adverse events require digitally stored ECGs, whereas most clinical facilities worldwide store ECGs as images.
Do AI-ECG models trained on ECG images perform comparably to models trained on natively digital ECGs for predicting mortality?
Cohort (n=835,934)
Yes
Do AI-ECG models trained on ECG images perform comparably to models trained on natively digital ECGs for predicting mortality?
AI-ECG models can accurately predict mortality using ECG images, performing comparably to models using natively digital ECGs, which enables their use in settings lacking digital ECG infrastructure.
Supports broader AI-ECG mortality prediction from images in non-digital settings; extends digital models but leaves open prospective validation needs.
Aims Most artificial intelligence-enhanced electrocardiogram (AI-ECG) models used to predict adverse events including death require that the ECGs be stored digitally. However, the majority of clinical facilities worldwide store ECGs as images. Methods and results A total of 1 163 401 ECGs (189 539 patients) from a secondary care data set were available as both natively digital traces and PDF images. A digitization pipeline extracted signals from PDFs. Separate 1D convolutional neural network (CNN) models were trained on natively digital or digitized ECGs, with a discrete-time survival loss function to predict time to mortality. A 2D CNN model was trained on 310 × 868 px ECG images. External validation was performed in 958 954 ECGs (645 373 patients) from a Brazilian primary care cohort and 1022 ECGs (1022 patients) from a Chagas disease cohort. The image 2D CNN model and digitized 1D CNN model performed comparably to natively digital 1D CNN model in internal [C-index 0.780 (0.779–0.781), 0.772 (0.771–0.774), and 0.775 (0.774–0.776), respectively] and external validation. Models trained on natively digital 1D ECGs had comparable performance when applied to digitized 1D ECGs [C-index 0.773 (0.771–0.774)]. Conclusion Both the image 2D CNN and digitized 1D CNN enable mortality prediction from ECG images, with comparable performance to natively digital 1D CNN. Models trained on natively digital 1D ECGs can also be applied to digitized 1D ECGs, without any significant loss in performance. This work allows AI-ECG mortality prediction to be applied in diverse global settings lacking digital ECG infrastructure.
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Sau et al. (2024) conducted a cohort in Mortality (n=835,934). Image 2D CNN and digitized 1D CNN models vs. Natively digital 1D CNN model was evaluated on Time to mortality (C-index 0.780, 95% CI 0.779-0.781). Image 2D CNN and digitized 1D CNN models enabled mortality prediction from ECG images with comparable performance to natively digital 1D CNN models (C-index 0.780 vs 0.775).
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