Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008–2009

This paper introduces a new empirical model of international trade flows based on an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand. We compute the import intensity of demand components by using the OECD Input-Output tables. We argue that the composition of demand plays a key role in trade dynamics because of the relatively larger movements in the most import-intensive categories of expenditure (especially investment, but also exports). We provide evidence in favor of these mechanisms for a panel of 18 OECD countries, paying particular attention to the 2008–2009 Great Trade Collapse. (JEL E23, F14, F17, F44, G01)