A meta-analysis of recidivism rates among individuals who commit child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offending

A critical challenge for managing individuals with Child Sexual Exploitation Material (CSEM) offenses is addressing their risk of sexual recidivism, especially contact sexual offending. We report on a meta-analysis of 30 non-overlapping samples (total N = 25,978), with 26 samples identifying CSEM index offenses and subsequent recidivism using official sources (e.g., charges) and four samples identifying CSEM offenses and subsequent recidivism using self-report. Individuals with CSEM offenses based on official sources showed a fixed-effect recidivism rate of 5.9 % any sexual (95 % CI = [5.6, 6.3], k [studies] = 21, N = 19,112), 1.5 % contact sexual (95 % CI = [1.4, 1.7], k = 20, N = 18,543), and 4.1 % CSEM (95 % CI = [3.8, 4.4], k = 21, N = 13,522), after an average of 5-year follow-up. Based on official sources, the odds of contact sexual offenses among Mixed individuals (CSEM plus contact sexual offending) are 16 times higher than CSEM-Exclusive individuals (exclusively CSEM offenses in their sexual offending history) at 8.8 % versus 0.6 % (OR = 15.99), respectively. There were several other significant moderators: National sources of official recidivism data produced higher rates than local sources ( Q ∆ = 58.1, p < .0001, df = 1); official recidivism had lower rates than self-reported recidivism ( Q ∆ = 232.2, p < .0001, df = 1); longer follow-ups were associated with higher rates, unstandardized B = 0.01, Z = 75.8, p < .001; and more recent studies showed higher rates, unstandardized B = 0.002, Z = 68.0, p < .001. This meta-analysis establishes new recidivism base rates for individuals with CSEM offenses, which can be used to inform risk-driven policies and practices. • Individuals with CSEM offenses rarely commit a new contact sexual offense. • Those with both CSEM and contact sex offenses reoffend more than those with exclusively CSEM offenses. • Management of CSEM must consider presence of contact sex offenses to inform risk.