Real-Time Reliability Assessment and Lifetime Prediction for Bearings Using the Individual State Deviation Based on the Manifold Distance

In recent years, the real-time reliability evaluation and life prediction for rolling bearings has attracted more attention. Most of the existing methods employ real-time transformation of traditional reliability indices, performance degradation trajectory or distribution analysis, which usually have certain limitations in terms of accuracy and applicability. This paper proposes a method for bearing real-time reliability evaluation and life prediction to avoid the negligence of real-time transformation of the monitored individual, as well as reduce the errors caused by the randomness from individual bearing operational process. The individual state deviation of a running rolling bearing geometrically measured by manifold distance is normalized into a state deviation degree, which is used to formulate a modified real-time reliability model for realtime reliability evaluation and lifetime prediction. Finally, the feasibility and efficiency of this method is validated by bearing run-to-failure experiments.