The impact of artificial intelligence on government digital service capacity

Amid the rapid advancement of digital governance, understanding how artificial intelligence (AI) shapes local governments’ digital service capacity is of critical theoretical and policy relevance. This study utilizes panel data from prefecture-level and above cities in China to systematically examine the impact of AI development on the effectiveness of government digital services, while further exploring its underlying mechanisms and contextual moderators. The findings demonstrate that AI significantly enhances digital service capacity, with human capital and knowledge capital functioning as important mediating pathways. Moreover, the positive effect of AI is more pronounced in regions outside the Yangtze River Economic Belt, whereas stronger governmental self-coordination capacity tends to attenuate its beneficial governance impact. This study contributes to the literature on digital government and technology-enabled governance transformation, offering both theoretical insight and empirical evidence to inform differentiated regional policy design.