Incidence of AD may decline in the early 90s for men, later for women

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the incidence of AD among the elderly population of Cache County, UT, noted for its longevity and high response rates; to explore sex differences; and to examine whether AD incidence plateaus or declines in extreme old age. METHODS: Using a multistage screening process in 1998 and 1999, and re-examining 122 individuals who had been identified 3 years earlier as cognitively compromised but not demented, the authors found 185 individuals with incident dementia (123 with AD) among 3,308 participants who contributed 10,541 person-years of observation. Adjusting for nonresponse and screening sensitivity, the authors estimated the incidence of dementia and of AD for men and women in 3-year age intervals. Multivariate discrete time survival analysis was used to examine influences of age, sex, education, and genotype at APOE, as well as interactions of these factors. RESULTS: The incidence of both dementia and AD increased almost exponentially until ages 85 to 90, but appeared to decline after age 93 for men and 97 for women. A statistical interaction between age and the presence of two APOE-epsilon 4 alleles indicated acceleration in onset of AD with this genotype; the interaction of age and one epsilon 4 suggested more modest acceleration. A statistical interaction of sex and age indicated greater incidence of AD in women than in men after age 85. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of AD in the Cache County population increased with advancing age, but then peaked and declined among the extremely old. The presence of APOE-epsilon 4 alleles accelerated onset of AD, but did not appreciably alter lifetime incidence apparent over a span of 100 years.