The time complexity of Monte Carlo radiosity is discussed, and a proof is given that the expected number of rays required to produce a satisfactory radiosity solution for N zones is O(N). A satisfactory solution is defined to be one in which the variance of radiance estimates for each zone is below a predefined threshold. The proof assumes that the radiance is bounded, and the area ratio of the largest to smallest zone is bounded.
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Peter Shirley (1991) studied this question.