Collective Dynamics of Behaviourally-Motivated Energy Peak Moderation

Managing peak loads from uneven daily demand is critical for modern national grids. Most approaches address this from technical, financial, or other individual perspectives. While the multidimensional nature of energy demand is recognised among researchers and industry, the dynamics and drivers of individual and collective behaviours needed to protect infrastructures are not fully understood. At the residential level, studies lack analysis of the complex mix of social and individual motivations behind energy management decisions. Moreover, research concentrates on consumption reduction, showing decreasing marginal impact long term. This work addresses this gap by modelling household energy demand dynamics emphasising three combined motivations: social identity, household energy practices, and individual constraints. The proposed agent-based model integrates reference theory, empirical data from Bristol and Glasgow households, and UK statistics. The approach considers household awareness of energy challenges, members' routines and the role of community identity in energy-related decisions. The dynamics are analysed considering time-of-use variations, revealing adaptation behaviours with potential for consistent long-term response. Extensive simulations and sensitivity analysis show distinct effects of household profiles on demand patterns, with strong social identity provoking firm collective response reflected in rapid demand adaptation to community needs. The model enables exploration of energy demand dynamics within communities and evaluation of factors promoting consistent behaviours that contribute to grid peak load moderation.