Coupling Land Use Planning and Multi-Stakeholder Dynamics to Inform Disaster Risk Management: Who Pays for Risk and Who Gains from Intervention?

As development accelerates in areas prone to natural hazards, economic losses from disasters rise, prompting growing need to investigate land use policies (LUP) that reduce risk and support economic and social objectives. While previous research has explored the drivers of hazard exposure, limited work has evaluated how LUP strategies influence long-term disaster outcomes through their interaction with building inventory growth and public decision-making. This study assesses how land use and acquisition strategies shape disaster losses, government expenditures, and household outcomes over time. We present a computational framework that simulates building inventory changes under different LUP restrictiveness levels and apply it to eastern North Carolina. The framework models government programs, household decisions, and economic outcomes under six strategies based on three levels of LUP restrictiveness, with and without a property acquisition program. Importantly, in all cases, the projected development is allowed to occur; however, policies instead guide where growth takes place to limit increasing risk. The results reveal two central dynamics. First, continued development without intervention leads to sharp increases in losses, with the economic burden falling mainly on households and the government. Second, land use restrictions and acquisition programs significantly reduce system-wide exposure by limiting flood losses, particularly from new construction. These interventions lower economic losses and financial burdens, easing public disaster spending and reducing household expenditures. While insurer profits continue to rise, gains are more modest under restrictive policies. Together, these findings underscore how land use interventions reduce losses and reallocate financial burdens as communities continue to grow.