Economic Policy Uncertainty and Health: Empirical Evidence from the MIDAS Model

Background/Objectives: While the health effects of economic fluctuations are well-documented, the role of policy-related uncertainty remains underexplored. The objective of this study is to examine the association between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and mortality. Furthermore, we investigate whether changes in lifestyle behaviors are associated with EPU and may help shed light on the relationship between EPU and health outcomes. Methods: We utilize a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) framework to analyze US state-level data from 2009 to 2020. The model controls for unemployment, income, demographic characteristics, as well as state and year fixed effects. This approach enables the incorporation of high-frequency uncertainty measures to capture dynamic mortality responses. Results: The results indicate a statistically significant inverse association between EPU and total mortality. The association is negative across both genders, with a stronger effect observed among males. Across age cohorts, the retirement-age group exhibits the highest sensitivity. In terms of cause-specific mortality, EPU is positively associated with mortality from respiratory diseases and suicide, while it is negatively associated with mortality from homicide, accidents, and pneumonia and influenza. In addition, EPU is significantly associated with a lower prevalence of current drinking and smoking, a higher likelihood of being in a healthy weight range, improved self-reported health, and reduced time spent traveling. Conclusions: The findings suggest heterogeneous associations between EPU and mortality outcomes across demographic groups and causes of death, highlighting the complex and multifaceted nature of the relationship between policy-related uncertainty and population health rather than a uniform response across health outcomes.