Is the Representational Capacity of POI for Population Density Consistent? A Spatiotemporal Assessment at the County Level in China

Point-of-interest (POI) data are widely used to spatialize and predict socioeconomic variables, yet their consistency across regions and over time, as well as their cross-regional generalizability, remain insufficiently understood. This study examines these issues using county-level units in China for 2010 and 2020 from three perspectives: relationship structure, cross-regional generalization, and model improvement. First, a power-law model is applied to characterize the nonlinear relationship between POI density and population density and to assess its spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Second, generalizability is evaluated by comparing model parameters and predictive performance under random and spatially stratified sampling. Third, multi-source geospatial data, including nighttime lights, road networks, and land use, are integrated to compare linear, spatial, machine learning, and ensemble models. Results reveal a consistent sublinear relationship with strong spatial heterogeneity. Under spatially independent validation, predictive accuracy declines and becomes more variable, indicating limited cross-regional generalization. Integrating multi-source data with ensemble learning improves stability and reduces uncertainty. POI remains the dominant predictor, though its relative importance becomes more concentrated in 2020. Overall, the study highlights the limitations of POI-based population estimation and proposes strategies to enhance robustness and generalizability.