Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Urban Expansion in Guangxi, China

This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of urban expansion in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, from 2013 to 2023. Using Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we combine Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE) analysis, centroid migration, kernel density estimation (KDE), landscape metrics, Local Moran’s I (LISA), and system Generalised Method of Moments (system-GMM) estimation. The results show that the centroid of urban development remained within Binyang County while moving overall toward the southeast with recurrent north–south oscillations. The SDE results indicate a stable northeast–southwest orientation, with secondary expansion in other directions. The urban structure is dominated by a strong Nanning core, accompanied by secondary clusters in Liuzhou, Guilin, and other prefecture-level cities. Nanning recorded the largest absolute expansion, followed by secondary centres, including Liuzhou, Guilin, Yulin, Wuzhou, Fangchenggang, Qinzhou, and Beihai, whereas western and northern Guangxi expanded more slowly. The system-GMM results indicate that financial deepening has a marginally significant positive effect on built-up area expansion and fiscal pressure has a marginally significant constraining effect, both at the 10% level; land finance dependency does not emerge as an independent driver in this small panel. We interpret these findings through a Source–Channel–Valve framework, in which financial deepening provides the capital source, land finance represents a hypothesised institutional channel, and fiscal pressure acts as a regulatory constraint. The study provides empirical evidence for sustainable and regionally coordinated urban development in Guangxi and comparable geographically constrained regions.