What question did this study set out to answer?

The study aims to analyze the total electron content (TEC) variations caused by significant earthquakes in Indonesia from 2004 to 2024.

May 27, 2026

Earthquake-Induced Ionospheric TEC Variations Analysis over Indonesia during 2004–2024 and Comparison with Median/NeQuick TEC

Key Points

The study aims to analyze the total electron content (TEC) variations caused by significant earthquakes in Indonesia from 2004 to 2024.
Selected five earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5.9 Mw in Indonesia.
Collected TEC data from the BAKO GNSS station over a 30-day period before each earthquake.
Performed comparative analysis using statistical parameters including RMSE, MAGE, NSE, and SCC.
Median TEC values were closer to observed true TEC compared to NeQuick TEC during earthquake periods.
Significant TEC variations were observed during the times of the earthquakes.
Study suggests a relationship between earthquakes and disturbances in the ionosphere.

Abstract

The ionospheric layer contains free electrons and charged particles, which influence the propagation of radio signals. Total electron content (TEC) is a significant ionospheric parameter that represents the total number of electrons along the path between a radio transmitter and a receiver. Variations in TEC can affect communication and navigation systems and are mainly changed by solar ultraviolet radiation, geomagnetic storms, and atmospheric waves initiating from the lower atmosphere. Besides these activities, earthquakes can also cause TEC disturbances in the ionosphere. This research studies the TEC variations of five significant earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5.9 Mw that happened in Indonesia between the years 2004 and 2024. To do this study, we have selected the earthquakes that include the Western New Guinea, Wharton Basin, Papua, Maluku, and Sarangani events. The required TEC data was recorded from the BAKO GNSS station in Indonesia. In the case of each selected earthquake, TEC values of 30 days prior to that particular earthquake were used in the estimation of median TEC. A comparative analysis is carried out among the observed True TEC, Median TEC, and NeQuick model TEC for five days before and one day after each quake. This comparison is evaluated based on the statistical parameters such as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Gross Error (MAGE), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Spearman Correlation Coefficient (SCC). The result indicates that the Median TEC is closer to the observed true TEC compared to the NeQuick TEC during these earthquake periods. The variations of TEC were observed at the time of the earthquake; this indicates variations that occurred due to changes in the ionosphere. This study helps to understand the relationship between earthquakes and disturbances in the ionosphere, which will be very effective in doing further research related to seismic studies.

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