Research on Construction Quality Risk Management of Urban Expressway Projects

Urban expressway projects are critical components of modern transportation infrastructure, yet their construction quality is often threatened by multi-source, latent, and dynamic risks. Traditional expert-driven risk identification methods frequently suffer from subjective bias and low efficiency, failing to meet the rigorous management requirements of complex engineering environments. To address these challenges, this study proposes a robust risk assessment framework integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) and the Delphi method within a Bayesian Network (BN) structure. First, LLM technology is leveraged to perform semantic mining on extensive engineering texts, including construction specifications and project reports, to pre-identify potential risk factors. Second, the Delphi method is applied through multiple rounds of expert consultation to refine a comprehensive inventory comprising 32 risk factors across five dimensions: personnel, machinery, materials, methods, and environment. Finally, a BN-based evaluation model is developed, utilizing forward inference, backward diagnosis, and sensitivity analysis to quantify risk levels and pinpoint critical risk drivers. The framework was empirically validated using the T Expressway Project in Hangzhou as a case study. Results demonstrate that the model effectively transforms empirical management into precise, data-driven diagnosis, providing project managers with a quantitative tool for optimizing construction quality control and decision making in complex urban bridge projects.