Probability Assessment of Strategic and Total Rare Earth Element Supply for the EU Under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act

The European Union aims to reduce its dependency on imported critical and strategic raw materials. Therefore, the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act defines benchmarks for strategic raw materials on domestic mining, recycling, refining, and the diversification of import sources to be achieved by 2030. This study investigates the feasibility of the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act mining benchmark for strategic rare earth elements, which aims for 10% of the EU’s annual demand to be met through domestic mining. We assess whether domestic rare earth element supply from mining within the EU can meet the projected future demand for 2030 and 2050. The study also examines the extent to which the total demand of rare earth elements for the EU could be met proportionally. An uncertainty estimation with Monte Carlo simulation with consideration of uniform and Gaussian distribution, based on individual project development stages, highlights that reaching the 10% benchmark for strategic rare earth elements is theoretically likely by 2030; however, with an incorporated nine-year lead time, meeting the 2030 benchmark is no longer feasible. Furthermore, obstacles such as social license to operate, mining permits and appeals in practice may additionally prolong procedures. The study concludes that in order to mine domestic rare earth elements and to reduce import dependency, the EU needs to invest in geological exploration and mining. Moreover, establishing a whole rare earth elements supply chain from mining to refining is highly complex and, as illustrated by the Japan–Australia partnership, which required 14 years without including the geological exploration phase.