Have Low-Carbon City Pilot Programs Improved Urban Land Use Efficiency? Evidence from 285 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

Against the backdrop of China’s “dual carbon” goals and urban green transition, improving urban land use efficiency is essential for shifting land development from extensive expansion to intensive and low-carbon use. Using the Low-Carbon City Pilot Program as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines panel data from 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2023. We apply a multi-period difference-in-differences model, a threshold regression model, and a spatial Durbin model to assess the program’s impact on urban land use efficiency. The results show that the pilot program significantly improves urban land use efficiency, and the effect persists over time. This finding remains robust across a series of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the efficiency gains are stronger in cities with lower air pollution control pressure, higher industrial pollution control pressure, and lower fiscal pressure. Further threshold analysis shows that digital connectivity is a key condition for strengthening the policy effect. The spatial analysis suggests that the policy effect shows some spatial association. However, the decomposed indirect and total effects are not robust, so the spatial results should be interpreted with caution. This study provides empirical evidence on how low-carbon city pilots affect urban land governance and land use efficiency. Its conclusions, however, remain subject to limitations related to efficiency measurement, policy identification, and the availability of city-level data.