Key result
Early recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmia during the third month post-ablation strongly predicted late recurrence by 1 year (HR 9.64, P<0.0001), questioning the 90-day blanking period.
Why the study?
Does the timing of early recurrence within the 3-month blanking period after catheter ablation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation predict late recurrence?
RCT (n=401)
Does the timing of early recurrence within the 3-month blanking period after catheter ablation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation predict late recurrence?
Effect estimate: HR 9.64
p-value: p=<0.0001
Early recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmia during the third month after catheter ablation for paroxysmal AF is highly predictive of late recurrence, challenging the utility of a strict 90-day blanking period.
Should not yet alter the 90-day blanking period in practice; leaves open whether timing refines risk stratification in prospective trials.
BACKGROUND: Early recurrences (ERs) of atrial tachyarrhythmia are common after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation. A 3-month blanking period is recommended by current guidelines. This study sought to investigate the significance of ER during the first 3 months post ablation in predicting late recurrences and determine whether it varies according to timing. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 401 patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation undergoing pulmonary vein isolation were followed for 12 months with transtelephonic monitoring in the ADVICE (Adenosine Following Pulmonary Vein Isolation to Target Dormant Conduction Elimination) trial. Patients with atrial tachyarrhythmia ≥30 s within the 3-month blanking period were stratified according to the timing of ER. A total of 179 patients (44.6%) experienced their last episode of ER during the first (n=53), second (n=44), or third (n=82) month of the 3-month blanking period. One-year freedom from symptomatic atrial tachyarrhythmia was 77.2% in patients without ER compared with 62.6%, 36.4%, and 7.8% in patients with ER 1, 2, and 3 months post ablation, respectively (P<0.0001). Receiver operating curve analyses revealed a strong correlation between the timing of ER and late recurrence (area under the curve 0.82, P<0.0001). Corresponding hazard ratios for ER during the first, second, and third months were 1.84, 4.45, and 9.64, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study validates the use of a blanking period after catheter ablation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation but calls into question the 90-day cut-off value. In particular, >90% of patients with ER during the third month post ablation experience late recurrence by 1 year. However, pending further study, repeat ablation before 90 days cannot be routinely advocated. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01058980.
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Willems et al. (2016) conducted an RCT in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (n=401). Early recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmia vs. No early recurrence was evaluated on One-year freedom from symptomatic atrial tachyarrhythmia (HR 9.64, p=<0.0001). Early recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmia during the third month post-ablation strongly predicted late recurrence by 1 year (HR 9.64, P<0.0001), questioning the 90-day blanking period.
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