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Firms have learned how to strengthen the resilience of their global supply chains (SC) to confront disruptions triggered by severe disasters. However, a new instigator of SC disruption, quite unlike any seen in recent times, has now emerged – the COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 virus. We model the ripple effect of an epidemic outbreak in global SCs considering the velocity of pandemic propagation, the duration of production, distribution and market disruption, and a demand decline. We analyse pandemic supply risk mitigation measures and potential recovery paths. Implications for future research and global SC (re)-designs are also discussed.
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Ivanov et al. (2020) studied this question.
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