Advanced Membranes and Learning Scale Required for Cost-Effective Post-combustion Carbon Capture

. To assess learning experience required for advanced technology using such high-performance membranes toward commercialization, a hybrid approach that combines learning curves with the techno-economic analysis is applied to project the cumulative installed capacity necessary for the evolution from first-of-a-kind to NOAK systems. The estimated learning scale for advanced membrane technology is more than 10 GW, depending on multiple factors. Implications for research, development, and policy are discussed.