Quantifiable community resilience solutions for coastal communities over long time horizons

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

Hurricanes pose some of the most severe threats to coastal communities, with global warming exacerbating their destructive impacts as sea levels continue to rise. As the pace of climate change accelerates, the need for effective climate adaptation strategies is more urgent than ever, particularly to support long-term community resilience. Quantifying this resilience is complex, but cumulative population outmigration can serve as a valuable indicator by capturing both prolonged physical and social impacts of hazard events. Additionally, evaluating climate adaptation strategies is challenging due to the substantial uncertainties in hurricane modeling under climate change and in community modeling over extended time horizons, i.e. several decades or more. Previous research has introduced the climate adaptation matrix (CAM) to help community stakeholders mitigate hurricane wind impacts by selecting appropriate adaptation strategies across climate change scenarios of varying intensity. This study advances the conceptualized community climate adaptation methodology by incorporating multi-hazard impacts and assessing population dynamics resulting from both inherent population changes and hazard-induced outmigration. The multi-hazard modeling framework integrates the effects of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and resulting sea level to estimate wind speeds, storm surge levels, and wave heights for future hurricane events. Both wind and water damage from hurricanes are then evaluated in the risk assessment process. The extended methodology is applied to develop an adaptation strategy for Miami Beach, Florida, by 2100, with a focus on enhancing the structural performance of residential buildings.