The balance between interseismic elastic strain accumulation and coseismic release defines the extent to which a fault system exhibits a surplus or deficit of large earthquakes. We calculate the regional moment accumulation rate in southern California based on a fault slip rate catalog estimated from a block model of interseismic deformation constrained by GPS measurements. The scalar moment accumulation rate, 17.8 ± 1.1 × 10 18 N m/yr, is approximately 50% larger than the average moment release rate over the last 200 years. Differences between the accumulated and released elastic displacement fields are consistent with moment deficits that are localized in three regions: the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, offshore faults and the Los Angeles and Ventura basins, and the Eastern California Shear Zone. The moment budget could be balanced by coseismic events with a composite magnitude of M w ≈ 8.
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Meade et al. (2005) studied this question.
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