Assessing temporal causal effects of climate on dengue incidence in Peninsular Malaysia

Background: Climatic factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall significantly influence dengue transmission. However, their lagged and immediate effects on dengue incidence in Peninsular Malaysia remain poorly understood. This study aimed to analyze these relationships using advanced time-series methods. Methods: Monthly dengue cases (2013-2020) were obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia, while climate data were sourced from the Malaysia Meteorological Department. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to assess lagged associations, while Granger causality tests explored temporal relationships. Instantaneous causality tests evaluated concurrent interactions. Results: ) with dengue incidence. Conclusions: Temperature plays a critical role in both lagged and immediate dengue dynamics, while humidity and rainfall exhibit stronger immediate effects. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate data, particularly, temperature into dengue early warning systems to enhance outbreak prediction accuracy.