Determinants of chemical wood pulp production in Europe: evidence from panel econometrics and machine learning

Abstract Chemical wood pulp production plays a strategic role in Europe’s forest-based bioeconomy, given its strong linkages with energy consumption, industrial structure, and international trade. Understanding the key determinants of production is therefore essential for designing policies that support both industrial competitiveness and sustainability. This study aims to identify the macroeconomic, structural, trade, and energy-related drivers of chemical wood pulp production across Europe, using a balanced panel of eleven countries over the period 2009–2023. To capture both structural relationships and potential nonlinearities, the analysis integrates panel data econometric techniques with machine learning methods. Specifically, conventional panel regression models are complemented by an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) framework, with Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) employed to enhance model interpretability. The econometric results indicate that electricity consumption and chemical wood pulp exports are significant, positive determinants of production. A notable structural asymmetry emerges: countries characterized by a higher presence of small and medium-sized enterprises exhibit higher production levels, whereas greater industrial concentration in the hands of large firms is negatively associated with output. In addition, GDP is found to be negatively related to chemical wood pulp production in European economies, suggesting a partial decoupling of aggregate economic growth from resource-intensive manufacturing activities. The machine learning results corroborate these findings, demonstrating strong predictive performance and revealing nonlinear interactions that are not adequately captured by linear models. From a policy perspective, the results highlight the importance of securing reliable and affordable energy supply, supporting the resilience and adaptability of small and medium-sized enterprises, and fostering export-oriented strategies to sustain the long-term performance of Europe’s chemical wood pulp industry.