Simulated 21st century changes in regional water balance of the Great Lakes region and links to changes in global temperature and poleward moisture transport

Simulations from eight climate models and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios are used to investigate changes in the hydrologic budget of the Great Lakes region of North America and the links to large‐scale hemispheric/global changes. The ensemble average simulations indicate that increased net moisture (increased P‐E) for the Great Lakes area is associated with a general increase in poleward moisture transport, which in turn is highly correlated with the sensitivity of each climate model to greenhouse‐gas induced warming as measured by the global average increase of temperature.