The impact of economic and social factors on birth numbers: A panel data approach

This study examines the impact of urbanization, entrepreneurship, and education on the number of births across Turkish provinces from 2010 to 2023. Utilizing annual provincial-level data and applying the Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimator to account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, the analysis yields insightful findings. Results show that an increase in the urbanization rate contributes to a rise in the number of births, challenging the conventional view that urban living suppresses fertility. In contrast, a higher number of entrepreneurs and an increase in university graduates are both associated with a decline in birth rates. These findings suggest that individuals engaged in entrepreneurship or higher education may prioritize career and economic goals over family formation, leading to delayed or reduced fertility. The divergent effects of these variables underscore the need for nuanced demographic policies that support fertility while also accounting for socioeconomic transformations such as urban growth, entrepreneurial activity, and educational attainment.