Forecasting Construction Material Prices Using Vector Error Correction Model

This paper presents a vector error correction (VEC) model for use in forecasting the short- and long-term prices of construction materials. This model characterizes the relationship between construction material prices and a set of relevant explanatory variables. The use of VEC models to forecast construction material prices addresses a gap in the existing literature that stems from overlooking the importance of forecasting both the short- and long-term movements of individual construction materials. The proposed model is applied to produce forecast models for asphalt, steel, and cement prices in the United States based on the identified variables that govern the prices of each material. Practitioners can use the proposed model to forecast construction material prices. The derived insights can be used to enhance the chances of project success.