Global Supply-Chain Disruptions, Inflation Persistence, and Economic Recovery: A Dynamic Panel Econometric Analysis of Post-COVID-19 Economies

This study investigates the impact of global supply-chain disruptions on inflation persistence and economic recovery in the post-COVID-19 era using a panel of 45 countries from 2020 to 2023. Employing dynamic panel econometric techniques, including System-GMM, panel local projections, and ARDL models, the analysis demonstrates that supply-chain shocks significantly elevate inflation and slow output recovery, with effects persisting for multiple quarters. The findings reveal heterogeneity across countries, with emerging and developing economies experiencing stronger inflationary responses due to higher dependence on imported intermediate goods and limited monetary-policy flexibility. Interaction models further show that greater trade openness amplifies inflationary pressures during supply-chain bottlenecks. Policy implications underscore the need for coordinated supply-side interventions, structural resilience measures, and prudent monetary policies to mitigate cost-push inflation and support sustainable recovery. The study contributes to the literature by linking global supply-chain pressures, inflation dynamics, and output recovery, providing actionable insights for policymakers in managing macroeconomic stability in a highly interconnected global economy.