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In Poland, the gradual reduction in hard coal mining represents a cornerstone of the energy transition and economic restructuring strategy, with all mines scheduled to close by 2049 under the Social Agreement. Given Poland’s strong reliance on coal, this process has far-reaching implications for energy security, employment, regional development, and macroeconomic stability. The aim of this study is to assess the role and scale of the hard coal mining sector’s contribution to GDP and to examine the consequences of its gradual decline for the national energy mix. In the input–output framework, a reduction in domestic hard coal supply is modelled as a shock to the output of the disaggregated hard coal sector, affecting both intermediate demand and value added through inter-industry linkages. The analysis applies an inter-industry input–output framework based on a decomposed Input–Output Table of Poland, where the aggregated “hard coal and lignite” branch was disaggregated into thermal hard coal, coking coal, and lignite. Reduction Variants (WR25%, WR50%, WR75%, and WR100%) were combined with Substitution Variant WS2, which assumes replacement of domestic hard coal with imported coal, natural gas, and electricity under varying price scenarios (−40% to +40% relative to reference levels). The Migration Variant was also included to account for labour market effects. This approach generated a set of 100 scenarios, reflecting possible pathways of Poland’s energy transition. The results demonstrate that in every scenario, reducing domestic hard coal supply leads to a decline in GDP. Losses range from −0.175% to −0.25% under WR25% scenarios to between −0.775% and −1.1% under WR100%, depending on the relative prices of imported substitutes. Substitution patterns are highly sensitive to price dynamics: under low natural gas prices, gas dominates the replacement mix (over 57% share), while under high gas prices, imported coal prevails (70–90%). Electricity imports consistently remain marginal. These outcomes highlight Poland’s structural dependence on coal, the vulnerability of GDP to external price shocks, and the limitations of substitution options. This study concludes that the reduction in domestic coal mining, though inevitable in the context of the EU climate policy, will not be economically neutral. It requires careful management of substitution pathways, diversification of the energy mix, and socio-economic support for coal regions. The input–output framework used in this research offers a robust tool for quantifying both direct and indirect effects of the coal phase-out, supporting evidence-based policy for a just and sustainable energy transition.
Pepłowska et al. (Tue,) studied this question.