Local Conflict Intensity and Public Perceptions of the Police: Evidence from Afghanistan

What are the effects of internal armed conflict on public perceptions of the police? We explore this research question in the context of Afghanistan and argue that local conflict intensity will have a negative impact on how individuals evaluate the police as a key state institution, as it affects both how effective and how just police conduct is at the local level. We evaluate this proposition by employing a multilevel modeling approach that analyzes the effect of local conflict intensity on perceptions of the police among 31,720 Afghans across a sample of 360 districts (2007–12). Results indicate that the higher the local conflict intensity, the less likely individuals are to perceive the police as being effective in fighting crime, procedurally just, and trustworthy. Our study contributes to both the political science literature on the institutional consequences of violent conflicts and the literature on state-building and institutional legitimacy.