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The hypothesis that disturbance to coral reefs creates new surfaces that increase the risk of ciguatera is premised upon the increased algal substrates that develop on these surfaces being colonised by high ciguatoxin (CTX)-producing Gambierdiscus species that proliferate and enter the ciguatera food chain. Current evidence indicates that new algal substrates are indeed rapidly colonised by Gambierdiscus. However, the requirement that these Gambierdiscus species include at least one that is a significant (high) CTX-producer is more likely a limiting step. While ambient environmental conditions impact the capacity of Gambierdiscus to bloom, factors that limit the growth of the bloom could influence (typically increase) the flux of CTX entering marine food chains. Additionally, new algal substrates on damaged reefs can be preferentially grazed to funnel ciguatoxins from Gambierdiscus to herbivores in disturbed reef areas. In societies consuming second trophic level species (herbivores, grazers, and detritivores), such funnelling of CTX would increase the risk of ciguatera, although such risk would be partially offset over time by growth (toxin-dilution) and depuration. Here, we review evidence for six potential mechanisms to increase ciguatera risk from disturbance to coral reefs and suggest a hypothesis where ecosystem changes could increase the flux of CTX to groupers through a shift in predation from predominately feeding on planktonic-feeding prey to mostly feeding on benthic-feeding prey, increasing the potential for CTX to accumulate. Evidence for this hypothesis is stronger for the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and it may not apply to the Caribbean Sea/Atlantic Ocean.
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Holmes et al. (2025) studied this question.
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