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This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa, using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), and October-December (OND) precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040-2069). The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070-2099) with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected, relative to the 1985-2014 baseline period. Additionally, the mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation events-represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p-90p)-show an increase of 16%, 29%, and 47%, respectively, by the end of the century. The projected changes have a substantial implication for the region-which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources.
Ogega et al. (Thu,) studied this question.