Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in ASEAN: an extended IPAT model

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is one of the most diverse regions. 3.6% of global greenhouse-gas emissions was released in 2013 and is expected to rise substantially due to increasing population and income. Understanding how greenhouse-gas emissions in the region have evolved is an important first step to develop appropriate policies and this paper analyses the historical increase in CO2 emissions over the period 1971/2013, based on IPAT/Kaya approach combined with Variance analysis technique. Main findings indicate that: (1) population growth and increased income per capita have the largest contribution to emission growth; (2) fossil fuels increasingly become the dominant fuel and reversing this is a challenging task; (3) Energy efficiency gains have been achieved but it is the only factor that reduced emissions; and (4) the effect of changes in carbon intensity of fossil energy was negligible. These results should help Governments frame effective policies.